I was going through some old work and thought I would update some of my programs in a recent version of Microsoft Visual Studio. Old dogs and new tricks so to speak, but Visual C# is sufficiently similar to Visual C++ so it wasn't too bad. One of those was a program to fit curve parameters. The routine and the results are shown below the break. I will be making the executable file available on the Google Drive in the Downloads area in the very near future.
It has been about 15 months since I first did my original SIR modeling concerning the progression of Covid 19. That post is here. I thought I would re-visit the model and the data after all the things that have come to pass since that time. In my initial simple model I used a scaled population (1 being the total U.S. population.) I have subsequently made some numerical changes such that I could use the actual U.S. population and compare the confirmed cases and the estimates from the CDC.
As was mentioned in a previous post the CDC has esitmated that the total disease burden is off by a factor of 4.0 due to a variety of reasons they have published. That post is here. To my knowledge no one seems to take real issue with their estimates. In my model I used the multiplication factor published by the CDC and re-plotted it. It is shown below the break.
My horse trailer is finally ready to be titled and registered. I'll be going to the DMV on Monday and we'll see how that goes. California handily allows for the registration for an own built horse trailer and the paperwork seems to be straightforward. I'll temper my enthusiasm until I have the temporary tags in place. I'm really pleased with how it came out and I like the color scheme. Here's a picture of the interior, and a second one showing the outside.
What a month. Through August and the first two weeks in September it's been busy. I must have made two dozen trips evacuating other people's animals from the mountains. Wildfire. Every time there is a wildfire in California my mother phones me and asks "is everything OK?" Usually the fire is nowhere near us, well except this time, and she didn't call. Needless to say I get quite a few calls from my mother during wildfire season. The last drought caused a lot of tree kills due to the bark beetles, as I mentioned in a previous post, and often leads to an intense fire season.
It was quite the season this year and it was a near run thing at my place in the mountains. After the break is a photograph from the road up at about the 5000' elevation. The red dot is the approximate location of my place up there. The fire also threatened a small community at the base of the mountains.
What with my truck being sidelined and having other things to take care of I fell off on my schedule to get my horse trailer finished. I'm almost there. I have finished all the sheet metal work and primed and painted the interior. I'll be painting the exterior this weekend. The uprights and the main frame of the roof was fabricated from 14 Gauge 1 1/2" square tubing, and the roof bows were made using 1" 14 Gauge square tubing. A diagram is shown after the break.
Well I see that the CDC is playing with mask guidance again. "Vaccinated individuals should wear a mask indoors." What? Are the vaccinated carriers? Heaven help women named Claire or some such. Covid Claire would stink as a moniker. So as not to appear as sexist Covid Charlie would not be fun either.
Now according to the CDC, at least to the people down in the basement who probably do all of the good work, the US has had approximately 140 million cases of Covid-19. You can read about the disease burden here at the CDC site. I arbitrarily increased the value based upon the current case numbers and the presented under-report value.
Approximately 60% of the population has been vaccinated. Now I'm assuming people got the vaccine to prevent getting Covid and not getting the vaccine if they already had the disease. If that's the case then what's the big problem? We've probably got over a 90% immunity. Sure we will continue to get cases as not everyone is immune yet, and I'm sure there will be some cases of re-infection. After all, immunity is usually not considered perpetual.
Unless of course something is being left out. No, that wouldn't happen. I don't believe in conspiracies, but I am also highly skeptical when it comes to coincidences.
Well, it's done. The engine for my truck is rebuilt and I have installed it. I thought I would take the opportunity to go over some of the things I have learned over time about rebuilding engines. My very first rebuild was a one lung motorcycle engine, and I had an owners manual and some basic tools. I think I was 13 at the time. Back then, an owners manual gave you the instructions needed to do that kind of job. Today, not so much. I think they give you instructions on putting air in the tires with a warning not to suck on the inflator while depressing the air trigger.
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