It has been about 15 months since I first did my original SIR modeling concerning the progression of Covid 19. That post is here. I thought I would re-visit the model and the data after all the things that have come to pass since that time. In my initial simple model I used a scaled population (1 being the total U.S. population.) I have subsequently made some numerical changes such that I could use the actual U.S. population and compare the confirmed cases and the estimates from the CDC.
As was mentioned in a previous post the CDC has esitmated that the total disease burden is off by a factor of 4.0 due to a variety of reasons they have published. That post is here. To my knowledge no one seems to take real issue with their estimates. In my model I used the multiplication factor published by the CDC and re-plotted it. It is shown below the break.
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